August 21, 2009
“Paralysis by Analysis”
“Paralysis by Analysis” is a popular term used to describe the way that information affects workplace productivity. An overload of information can make it difficult or impossible for anyone to make decisions. Business and homeowners alike make dozens of decisions each day. These are influenced by a deluge of information received through multiple communication channels.
The challenge increases when the available information is clouded by uncertainty. A difficult exercise becomes nearly impossible when a decision must be made off incomplete or uncertain facts.
Hurricane season is a prime example of this. For thousands of businesses and millions of residents living in coastal communities along the Gulf Coast, the Florida peninsula, and up the eastern seaboard, each approaching storm carries the opportunity for uncertainty to cloud facts and further paralyze the decision making process.
There is a storm out there. It may come your way and it may not. If it does there are many things you need to do. If it doesn’t and you executed your preparations, you may now be left undoing them such as removing shutters. Not to mention covering the cost of executing those plans. So you wait and watch.
As these storms traverse the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center monitors their progress and issues advisories. These include the infamous projected path maps complete with what is sometimes referred to as the “Cone of Uncertainty”. They come in 3 and 5 day varieties and as the forecast goes out in time, the cone expands in its breadth covering several hundred miles.
Despite the effort and technology required to issue these forecasts, there is never a time when some degree of uncertainty is not involved. Even when all the models are in agreement and weather patterns are progressing as expected, tropical systems still provide forecasters with surprises by doing something unexpected.
In August of 2004, Hurricane Charley was about to make landfall on the west coast of Florida when it took an unexpected right-hand turn and made landfall near Port Charlotte instead of up the coast closer to Tampa as anticipated. While both areas were under a hurricane warning and in the forecast cone, expectations had been for the path to remain closer to the center of the cone instead of straying to the right. Charley also caught forecasters and residents off guard by rapidly intensifying from a category 2 to a category 4 storm.
More recently, the Tropical Discussion section of the forecasts for Tropical Storms Ana & Bill, noted that the forecast contained a larger than normal level of uncertainty.
When the public hears the advisories and views the forecast cone on the news, the uncertainty accompanying the issuance of the forecast is transferred to home and business owners trying to determine how to protect their property. The daily stress of dealing with information overload is now compounded trying to make a decision in a vacuum.
Despite the number of media outlets reporting on a storm’s progress, there is still a time when uncertainty creates an information vacuum as forecasters and the public wait for a forecast to verify. A forecast is verified when a storm actually passes a point on the map as it was predicted to do. This often involves waiting for an anticipated turn sending the storm out to sea avoiding landfall altogether.
During these periods of uncertainty when perhaps a few million residents are waiting to see what impact the storm might have on their area ranging from disruptions to destruction, normal business and life decisions go on hold. Travel decisions, projects and preparation efforts are all up in the air waiting to see what path a storm will take. Everyone deals with these stressful periods in their own way. Some prefer a wait and see attitude while others are quick to react.
Regardless of your approach, it is important to remain calm, rely on your preparations and stay informed by monitoring NOAA’s and the National Weather Service’s advisories as well as local news. The feeling of frustration when you were waiting to know where the storm was heading will pass and you will know if the storm is headed your way. If it is, a whole new level of stress is about to begin, but that is another story.
We’d like to hear how you or your business handles those uncertain hours or days when you are waiting to see if you will need to prepare for one of nature’s most destructive forces, a hurricane. The 2009 season is beginning to heat up in a big way with three named storms. Where will they go?
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