August 21, 2009
“INTERSECTIONS”
One of my favorite analogies for explaining the way things work is something very familiar to every person of driving age and above; the standard traffic intersection. Just one of the thousands you have encountered in your life with two roads intersecting one another resulting in four lanes of traffic converging at a simple traffic light.
It is a system like many other systems we rely upon. In this case it conveys vehicles through a conflict when their intended courses of travel intersect. The traffic light is the primary system. It functions under rules such as “go when the light is green” and “stop when the light is red”. It even comes with a warning that one condition is turning into another; the amber caution light.
If the primary system fails and the lights go out, drivers have been taught a set of rules to deal with this. You know them as the rules of right-of-way. I won’t repeat them but suffice it to say these make up the back-up system.
As common as intersections are, surely everyone knows exactly how to operate this system under the established rules and follow them at each intersection they come to.
We all know that is not the case. Thousands of times a day across our nation, the system fails either through execution or violation. When this happens the system crashes along with the vehicles. The result can be minor or fatal.
Your organization is a system. It runs on dozens, sometime hundreds of smaller systems. Each one has rules just like our intersection. When they function properly, business flows through these systems like automobiles through the town. When everything runs smoothly and there are no crashes, business is good and your organization is successful.
However, it only takes one crash at a key system or intersection to quickly bring traffic of any kind to a halt. On the road it is called gridlock and in business it is a disruption.
We are living in a world filled with systems far more complicated than our intersection. What’s more is these complex systems are interconnected, building on the complexity. At the same time we are witnessing more “crashes” and near-misses than we have ever recorded. Like a driver running a red light instigates a crash, a hurricane, pandemic or economic recession does the same to your organization. It crashes into it whether or not you had the right-of-way.
On the road we try to drive cautiously by choosing the right vehicle, having an airbag and proper insurance. In business, while the proper insurance is one precaution, others are required. A Business Continuity Plan addresses these necessary precautions. Conducting business without one is like closing your eyes when going through an intersection and praying no one hits you. Sooner or later your luck will run out.
There are currently wildfires in California; severe storms sweeping through the southeast, a global economic recession, an on-again off-again threat of pandemic which may keep our attention until the fall and between now and then, the hurricane season begins June 1 for the eastern seaboard and gulf coast.
Current forecasts call for the AH1N1 influenza outbreak to remain mild in its medical impact and there is some discrepancy over what the 2009 hurricane season may bring. Some may take that as encouraging and it is. Just like the green light you’ve been given to proceed through the intersection. I just hope the other driver and the myriad of threats your organization faces stop at the red light.
“Paralysis by Analysis”
“Paralysis by Analysis” is a popular term used to describe the way that information affects workplace productivity. An overload of information can make it difficult or impossible for anyone to make decisions. Business and homeowners alike make dozens of decisions each day. These are influenced by a deluge of information received through multiple communication channels.
The challenge increases when the available information is clouded by uncertainty. A difficult exercise becomes nearly impossible when a decision must be made off incomplete or uncertain facts.
Hurricane season is a prime example of this. For thousands of businesses and millions of residents living in coastal communities along the Gulf Coast, the Florida peninsula, and up the eastern seaboard, each approaching storm carries the opportunity for uncertainty to cloud facts and further paralyze the decision making process.
There is a storm out there. It may come your way and it may not. If it does there are many things you need to do. If it doesn’t and you executed your preparations, you may now be left undoing them such as removing shutters. Not to mention covering the cost of executing those plans. So you wait and watch.
As these storms traverse the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center monitors their progress and issues advisories. These include the infamous projected path maps complete with what is sometimes referred to as the “Cone of Uncertainty”. They come in 3 and 5 day varieties and as the forecast goes out in time, the cone expands in its breadth covering several hundred miles.
Despite the effort and technology required to issue these forecasts, there is never a time when some degree of uncertainty is not involved. Even when all the models are in agreement and weather patterns are progressing as expected, tropical systems still provide forecasters with surprises by doing something unexpected.
In August of 2004, Hurricane Charley was about to make landfall on the west coast of Florida when it took an unexpected right-hand turn and made landfall near Port Charlotte instead of up the coast closer to Tampa as anticipated. While both areas were under a hurricane warning and in the forecast cone, expectations had been for the path to remain closer to the center of the cone instead of straying to the right. Charley also caught forecasters and residents off guard by rapidly intensifying from a category 2 to a category 4 storm.
More recently, the Tropical Discussion section of the forecasts for Tropical Storms Ana & Bill, noted that the forecast contained a larger than normal level of uncertainty.
When the public hears the advisories and views the forecast cone on the news, the uncertainty accompanying the issuance of the forecast is transferred to home and business owners trying to determine how to protect their property. The daily stress of dealing with information overload is now compounded trying to make a decision in a vacuum.
Despite the number of media outlets reporting on a storm’s progress, there is still a time when uncertainty creates an information vacuum as forecasters and the public wait for a forecast to verify. A forecast is verified when a storm actually passes a point on the map as it was predicted to do. This often involves waiting for an anticipated turn sending the storm out to sea avoiding landfall altogether.
During these periods of uncertainty when perhaps a few million residents are waiting to see what impact the storm might have on their area ranging from disruptions to destruction, normal business and life decisions go on hold. Travel decisions, projects and preparation efforts are all up in the air waiting to see what path a storm will take. Everyone deals with these stressful periods in their own way. Some prefer a wait and see attitude while others are quick to react.
Regardless of your approach, it is important to remain calm, rely on your preparations and stay informed by monitoring NOAA’s and the National Weather Service’s advisories as well as local news. The feeling of frustration when you were waiting to know where the storm was heading will pass and you will know if the storm is headed your way. If it is, a whole new level of stress is about to begin, but that is another story.
We’d like to hear how you or your business handles those uncertain hours or days when you are waiting to see if you will need to prepare for one of nature’s most destructive forces, a hurricane. The 2009 season is beginning to heat up in a big way with three named storms. Where will they go?
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